Conditional Probabilities and the French Presidential Election
Last week we penned our thoughts on how the French Presidential Election might pan out. Overall we suggested that Marine Le Pen will need to see a significant increase in her vote and/or voter participation in the election would need to be quite low in order for her to emerge victorious. Still, given last year’s events and the growing likelihood Le Pen will qualify for the second round ‘run off’ vote for President, one can’t rule out the probability of a Le Pen victory.
Our take on the latest in European politics
With national elections scheduled in France, Germany, the Netherlands and possibly Italy in 2017, politics is never likely to be too far from the minds of investors in European assets in 2017. Below we provide a current update on the state of play on near term events in the Netherlands, France and Italy.
A busy few days for the key central banks
Last week was a busy one for central bank activity with the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all holding monetary policy meetings. None of the banks changed interest rates but that doesn't mean there was nothing for investors to digest.
Yellen rolls with the (Trump) punches
Last night’s decision by the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 0.25% was arguably the least interesting part of the FOMC meeting and press conference given it had been priced in as a virtual certainty by investors. The more interesting aspect was what happened the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ or members’ projections for changes in the Fed funds rate over the next few years.
Irish GDP/GNP Q3 2016 – Exceptionally strong performance, but largely due to ‘once offs’
This morning the Central Statistics Office (CSO) published the national accounts for Ireland for the third quarter of 2016. Overall they showed that real GDP and GNP grew by 4% and 3.2% respectively in the quarter meaning over the past twelve months they grew by 6.9% and 10.2% respectively (see table 1).